the visible hand

it is the theory which decides what can be observed – einstein

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest

Posted by ecoshift on October 22, 2007

Steep decline in oil production brings risk of war and unrest, says new study
Ashley Seager
Monday October 22, 2007
The Guardian

· Output peaked in 2006 and will fall 7% a year
· Decline in gas, coal and uranium also predicted

World oil production has already peaked and will fall by half as soon as 2030, according to a report which also warns that extreme shortages of fossil fuels will lead to wars and social breakdown.

The German-based Energy Watch Group will release its study in London today saying that global oil production peaked in 2006 – much earlier than most experts had expected. The report, which predicts that production will now fall by 7% a year, comes after oil prices set new records almost every day last week, on Friday hitting more than $90 (£44) a barrel.

…the EWG study relies more on actual oil production data which, it says, are more reliable than estimates of reserves still in the ground. The group says official industry estimates put global reserves at about 1.255 gigabarrels – equivalent to 42 years’ supply at current consumption rates. But it thinks the figure is only about two thirds of that.

Change in Major Crude Oil Reserves, 2001-2006
Dr. Jean-Paul Rodrigue, Dept. of Economics & Geography, Hofstra University

There is however some controversy concerning the true extent of oil reserves, especially in the Middle East. OPEC countries may have vastly overstated their reserves, mainly because production quotas are based upon estimated reserves. This means that the larger its reserves, the more an OPEC country can export oil…


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